考虑来流风速特征的风电机组超短期功率预测方法

An ultra short term power prediction method for wind turbines considering inflow wind speed characteristics

  • 摘要: 针对风电超短期功率预测中风速表征失真与模型动态响应不足的问题,本文提出一种融合高精度来流风速特征与TimeMixer架构的预测方法。首先,考虑风电场地形特性、机组间布局与尾流干扰,构建空间修正风速场并计算机组轮毂高度处未受扰动的真实来流风速;其次,以来流风速为特征,构建TimeMixer模型引入趋势性-高频波动性双通道特征分离机制,并通过多尺度特征融合策略,强化模型对功率演化中高频波动与低频趋势的协同捕捉能力;最后,基于云南曲靖山地风电场实测数据开展验证并与机舱风速模型进行对比。结果表明:以来流风速为输入的模型在均方根误差Ermse、平均绝对误差Emae、相关系数r和合格率QR四项指标上较机舱风速模型分别提升18.75%、25%、7.69%、6.37%;相较传统时间卷积网络TCN与长短期记忆网络模型LSTM,TimeMixer在趋势跟踪与波动响应方面表现更优, TimeMixer相较于TCN以及LSTM的相关系数r分别提升2.46%与5.04%。本文方法有效提升了超短期预测精度,能为高比例新能源电力系统稳定运行提供一定技术支撑。

     

    Abstract: To address the challenges of wind speed representation distortion and insufficient dynamic response in ultra short term wind power prediction, thispaper proposes a prediction method integrating high-fidelity inflow wind speed features with the TimeMixer architecture. First, considering the wind farm’s terrain characteristics, turbine layout, and wake interference effects, a spatially corrected wind field is constructed to estimate the undisturbed inflow wind speed at hub height for each turbine. Second, using this inflow wind speed as the primary input, a TimeMixer-based model is developed, incorporating a dual-channel decomposition mechanism for trend and high-frequency fluctuation components, and employing a multi-scale feature fusion strategy to enhance the model’s ability to jointly capture high-frequency fluctuations and low-frequency trends in power evolution. Finally, Real-world operational data from a mountainous wind farm in Qujing, Yunnan is used to validate the prediction method. Furthermore, we also compared the proposed model with nacelle wind speed model. The results show that the model with inflow wind speed as input has 18.75%, 25%, 7.69% and 6.37% higher than the nacelle wind speed model in terms of root mean square error (Ermse), mean absolutely error (Emae), r and QR respectively. Compared with traditional TCN and LSTM, TimeMixer performs better in trend tracking and fluctuation response. This method improves ultra-short-term forecasting accuracy and offers practical technical support for the stable operation of power systems with high renewable penetration.

     

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