基于条件生成对抗网络的台风极值风速分析

Extreme wind speed analysis of typhoons based on conditional generative adversarial networks

  • 摘要: 准确评估台风极值风速对保障台风影响地区的重要工程结构抗风安全具有重要意义。本研究建立了基于条件生成对抗网络的台风路径与强度模型,以实现台风极值风速的精细化分析。首先,将台风运动速度、台风强度的6小时变化量处理为一定状态变量(台风中心经纬度等)和环境变量(洋面温度等)的条件随机变量。然后,采用条件生成对抗网络建立台风运动速度、台风强度6小时变化量的生成器和判别器全连接神经网络,利用中国气象局台风最佳路径数据、20 th Century Reanalysis(20CR)再分析数据集等气象资料训练上述神经网络。通过与历史记录的对比,验证了台风路径模型与强度模型能够合理地反映历史台风运动轨迹特征和强度演化规律,并能准确再现台风局部路径中关键参数的均值、标准差乃至概率分布函数等重要统计特征。最后,利用本研究建立的台风模型分析了我国东南沿海地区台风极值风速,并与其他研究及规范推荐结果进行了对比与分析,全面评估了该模型在预测与台风相关的极端风事件方面的准确性和相关性。该模型为了解台风动态提供了更精确的工具,有望改善沿海地区的早期预警系统和风险评估。

     

    Abstract: Accurately assessing the extreme wind speeds of typhoons is of great significance for ensurning the wind-resistant safety of important engineering structures in typhoon-affected areas.A typhoon track and intensity model based on the conditional generative adversarial networks (GAN) to facilitate refined analysis of extreme typhoon wind speeds is developed in the present study. The model begins by treating the 6-hour changes in typhoon translational speed and intensity as conditional random variables, which are determined by certain state variables, such as the latitude and longitude of the typhoon center, and environmental variables, such as sea surface temperature. Then, the conditional GAN is applied, where fully connected neural networks are used for both the generator and discriminator to model the 6-hour changes in translational speed and intensity. The neural networks are trained using meteorological data, including the best track data from the China Meteorological Administration and the 20th Century Reanalysis (CR) dataset. The performance of the typhoon track and intensity model is validated through comparisons with historical records, confirming that the models can effectively capture key characteristics of historical typhoon trajectories as well as the evolution of their intensity. The models are also shown to accurately reproduce essential statistical features of typhoon paths, such as mean values, standard deviations, and probability distribution functions for key parameters in localized typhoon paths. Finally, the developed typhoon model is applied to analyze extreme wind speeds along the southeastern coastal regions of China, and the results are compared with other research findings and guideline recommendations, providing a comprehensive evaluation of the model's accuracy and relevance in forecasting extreme wind events associated with typhoons. This model offers a more precise tool for understanding typhoon dynamics, potentially improving early warning systems and risk assessment for coastal regions.

     

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